Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.444957 14.533706 16.818842 19.498204 22.547186 25.902107 29.866247
2024-10-27 9.114139 11.930096 15.321009 19.675837 25.087838 31.557643 39.838972
2024-11-03 7.514556 10.833638 15.163762 21.154132 29.141817 39.331013 53.200003
2024-11-10 6.222470 9.772022 14.739104 22.064017 32.428994 46.382059 66.352912
2024-11-17 5.255902 8.914177 14.362783 22.859968 35.515312 53.349052 79.973753
2024-11-24 4.291386 7.836871 13.440141 22.648808 37.028372 58.155932 90.922579
2024-12-01 3.420006 6.716030 12.234219 21.770489 37.343530 61.136017 99.360563
2024-12-08 2.773796 5.838635 11.257525 21.072214 37.775805 64.221602 108.086232
2024-12-15 2.384975 5.345854 10.843449 21.223485 39.540269 69.451180 120.444708
2024-12-22 2.005471 4.789929 10.219498 20.901875 40.432480 73.298022 130.831999
2024-12-29 1.845930 4.650223 10.345934 21.938305 43.754695 81.370257 148.636758
2025-01-05 1.641007 4.369530 10.149259 22.327182 45.927159 87.625494 163.798172
2025-01-12 1.434666 4.053149 9.852384 22.523583 47.839536 93.713910 179.367496
2025-01-19 1.254505 3.761314 9.564826 22.707639 49.759396 99.994537 195.788136
2025-01-26 1.203156 3.782888 9.968726 24.376981 54.729705 112.174154 223.508899
2025-02-02 1.111765 3.678831 10.069492 25.404890 58.508957 122.415690 248.387176
2025-02-09 1.022016 3.558650 10.112192 26.304865 62.100694 132.544558 273.684516
2025-02-16 0.883370 3.262910 9.678145 26.065426 63.278215 138.108616 290.795671
2025-02-23 0.731054 2.883300 8.964152 25.070789 62.724055 140.215361 301.440559
2025-03-02 0.611374 2.572242 8.371507 24.279696 62.517942 142.967464 313.460409
2025-03-09 0.543664 2.417389 8.177809 24.451070 64.484362 150.263452 334.835394
2025-03-16 0.467647 2.209673 7.795987 24.086640 65.171525 154.935622 351.224408
2025-03-23 0.445355 2.198006 7.989427 25.260743 69.584420 167.749468 384.829202